Seasonal Tendency° [Pro+]

Explore recurring Seasonal Market behavior with the Seasonal Tendency° [Pro+]

Seasonal Tendency° [Pro+]

Concept Introduction & Indicator Features

Seasonal Tendencies are recurring patterns/trends in markets such as stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. These patterns represent certain market trends that typically happen around the same time every year.

They are based on historical data and show that certain assets tend to perform better or worse during particular months or seasons.

Analyst Insights:
The seasonal tendencies arise due to certain recurring events throughout the year. For example:

  • Economic cycles (e.g., increased consumer spending during holidays),

  • Weather-related cycles (e.g., crop planting and harvesting affecting agricultural commodities),

  • Investor behavior (e.g., end-of-year tax-related buying or selling).

It is not an absolute guarantee of future price movements, but rather a general rule of thumb to identify potential high-probability long-term trades.

Keep in mind that while these seasonal tendencies have been successfully compared with the Inner Circle Trader's go-to seasonal third-party provider and are based on sound statistical logic, their reliability is dependent on the data available on TradingView. This means that the accuracy and relevance of these tendencies may vary, but they still serve as valuable tools for identifying potential high-probability trading opportunities when used in conjunction with other market analysis techniques. Pay attention to the Years of Data used to determine the significance of the information for your trading hypotheses.

Indicator Features:

  • Seamlessly integrates all available TradingView data to create a dynamic on-chart seasonal display

  • Monitor the 5, 10, 15, 30 and All Time Seasonal graphs with ease

  • Effortlessly visualize and align the seasonal graphs with real-time prices for a holistic view

  • Align the seasonal graph with the annual timeline, pinpointing precise moments for potential trading setups, keeping Months and Quarters in mind

  • Read into the seasonality thanks to the Seasonal Lows and Highs Matrix

  • Auto-detect the underlying Futures Contract's Asset Class

  • Monitor the entire Asset Class' Seasonal Tendencies with a tailored Seasonal Lows and Highs Matrix

Seasonal Settings

Plot Seasonal

On TradingView, you can plot the seasonal data for any year you choose. The data displayed will automatically adjust based on the selected time period. Rest assured, this data is reliable for backtesting, as it does not exhibit any look-ahead or repainting behavior.

Show Months

This setting toggles the vertical monthly dividers.

Show Quarters

This setting toggles the vertical quarterly dividers.

Analyst Insights:
How can we as analysts use this in our favor? Well for starters, it is ideal for backtesting. Let’s use ICT’s Price Action Model 4 as an example. This trading model uses the Seasonal Tendencies as one of it’s components. By using these settings we can go back in historical price action to test the strategy. Price Action Model 4 also makes use of the Quarterly Shift, the Show Months/Quarters setting allows us to also take Quarterly Shift into account without the need of plotting all the lines manually.

Seasonal Graphs

Style

Choose between a Line and Stepline to display the Seasonal Tendency graphs. Steplines resemble candles, and might help you visualize the Seasonal better.

You can also choose to Hide Graphs via the tailored On/Off switch, and display the table alone.

Seasonal Datasets

Depending on the availability of TradingView’s data for a specific symbol, and your TradingView plan, you will have access to different Data.

This means that to be able to take full advantage of the Seasonal Tendency° [Pro+] you need to have a TradingView Pro Plan or higher.

The All Time Seasonal is not an industry standard (5-10-15-30 year), rather a special feature of this tool. The more data you have the more powerful this seasonal becomes.

Analyst Insights:
In the style settings we have the option to enable/disable certain Seasonal data, if we want to refer to a specific lookback of years we can make sure only that year is selected. For example, we select only the 5-year data. We can now analyze sets of 5 years by plotting the seasonality for every 5 years, this way we can monitor certain market/economic cycles.

Seasonal Table

Seasonal Low and High Matrix

This On/Off switch will toggle the a table that shows you the seasonal lows and highs for each selected dataset, where the current month is highlighted:

You can choose colors for Lows, Highs, and LH/HL specifically based on your preferences. Additionally you can decide which color to overlay the current month with.

Customization:

  • Easily choose its location via the two location drop down menus

  • Change the size of the entire table

  • Choose the background and text/outline color

    Analyst Insights:
    The seasonal high and low can help analysts anticipate possible market reversal ahead of time. In certain markets, events tend to occur at the same time every year For example: Economic cycles (e.g., increased consumer spending during holidays) Weather-related cycles (e.g., crop planting and harvesting affecting agricultural commodities) Investor behavior (e.g., end-of-year tax-related buying or selling)
    When analysts are aware of these occurrences, it allows for pre-planned long term trades. Combine this with the COT Report data in order to see the positioning of the commercials and SMT Divergence in order to build an even stronger confirmation of the anticipated reversal.

    Get Access to this script here!